New Video Series - Litigation Risk Analysis

Welcome to our video series on using decision analysis in litigation and arbitration. Decision analysis helps you assess disputes more clearly by combining legal judgment with expert input, supporting better decisions in settlement negotiations and trial strategy.

The series is made up of short videos, so you can either follow them in sequence as a structured course or jump directly to topics of interest.

View the playlist on YouTube or browse the topics below. 

Getting started

00 - OverviewIntroduces litigation risk modelling using decision analysis. It introduces the method, explains why it is useful for assessing disputes, and shows how the tutorial series is structured.01 - Model a simple claim Demonstrates how to model a simple legal claim with uncertain outcomes using decision analysis. It shows how to move from a qualitative assessment to a structured model with probabilities and defined outcomes.

Core concepts

02.1 - Expected valueExplains expected value, a common measure of the value of a legal dispute under uncertainty. It shows how probabilities and outcomes combine into a single figure that can be used to compare litigation with settlement options.02.2 - Expected value: a deeper lookExplains how expected value behaves across different types of legal outcomes. It uses practical examples to show how gains and losses interact, and how expected value can guide decision-making.03 - Why expected value is not enoughExplains the limitations of expected value when assessing legal disputes. It introduces ways to understand the full range of outcomes using tables, histograms, and risk charts.

04 - Legal costs, not recoverableExplains how legal costs affect case value when they are not recoverable, i.e. when each party pays their own legal costs (a.k.a. the American Rule). It shows how costs reduce expected value and introduce downside risk into the analysis.05 - Legal costs, recoverableExplains how cost shifting (i.e. ‘loser pays’) affects expected value and the range of outcomes in litigation. It shows how recoverable costs influence settlement decisions.06 - Partially incurred legal costsExplains how to handle already-incurred legal costs when analyzing litigation risk. It distinguishes between sunk costs and recoverable costs.

Estimating damages and testing assumptions

07 - Estimating a range of damagesExplains how to easily model a range of damages using a three-point estimate. It shows how to capture uncertainty while keeping models simple.08 - Testing the “what if” using sensitivity analysisExplains how to test key assumptions in a litigation risk model. It shows how changes in probabilities and values affect case outcomes.09 - Modelling interest ratesExplains how to include interest in a litigation risk model. It shows how timing affects the value of claims and settlements.

Modelling more complex disputes

10 - Multiple liability questionsExplains how to model cases that depend on multiple legal questions. It shows how probabilities interact and how outcomes compound.11 - Single claim with two or more causes of actionExplains how to model alternative causes of action (multiple legal arguments) in a dispute. It shows how to avoid double counting outcomes.12 - One case with several heads of damagesExplains how to model multiple heads of damages in a decision tree. It shows how different damage categories combine into a total award.13.1 - Two independent claims modelled independently and togetherExplains how to model separate claims in a single case. It shows how outcomes combine and affect total exposure.13.2 - Legal cost recovery for several claims, and uncertainty around potential cost awardsExplains advanced approaches to modelling legal costs as part of a litigation risk analysis. It shows how to handle uncertainty and claim-specific cost rules.

Claims, counterclaims and reductions

14 - A claim and an independent counterclaim, modelled independently and togetherExplains how to model disputes with both claims and counterclaims. It shows how outcomes offset each other.15 - A claim and an offset defence, and other reductions of awarded amountsExplains how to model reductions to awards in a litigation risk assessment. It shows how set-offs affect total case value.

Enforcement and bankruptcy risk

16 - A case with risk of bankruptcy on the side of the defendantExplains how enforcement risk affects the exposure of a case. It shows how the upside can be reduced by uncertainty in recovery.17 - A case with risk of bankruptcy on the side of the claimantExplains how claimant bankruptcy risk affects cost recovery. It shows how this changes settlement incentives and how to factor this risk into a model.

External and non-claim values

18 - Values that are not a direct claim, but costs for managing the disputeExplains how to include internal effort and management costs. It shows how these affect the true value of litigation.19 - Values that are not a direct claim, but costs related to PR or similar factorsExplains how to include reputational impacts and other non-financial factors in a dispute analysis.20 - Legal costs partially covered by insuranceExplains how insurance changes risk exposure when analyzing a dispute. It shows how it affects expected value and settlements for both parties.

Special modelling situations

21 - Dealing with money that one party is withholdingExplains how to model withholding and counterclaims. It shows how undisputed amounts interact with claims.22 - Two trialsExplains how to model the impact of appeals. It shows how additional time and costs change outcomes.

Get in touch

We love talking about how to model disputes and how Eperoto can help you achieve better outcomes. Get in touch if you have questions or just want to discuss: [email protected].

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